France needs to sort its political mess - or populist winds blowing from the US will strengthen

Contemplating the turmoil sown by the return of President Trump, nobody could deny that the results of leadership elections in major nations matter to the rest of the world.

Take just the members of the G7 - so-called rich, industrialised democracies. Italy elected Giorgia Meloni in 2022, confirming the rise of the far-right.

She was not only Italy's first female leader, she was also the first from a neo-fascist party since Mussolini. The arrival of Donald Trump and Sir Keir Starmer changed the complexion of politics in the US and the UK last year.

Germany elected a more hawkish chancellor in waiting this spring. Barring accidents, the next potentially transformative election in what used to be called the "Western alliance" will not be for two years.

France is due to elect a new president to succeed Emmanuel Macron in the summer of 2027. The contest is already plagued by undercurrents of disruption, conflict between politicians and the law, and populism - similar to the fires burning elsewhere in the US and Europe.

This week French judges banned the frontrunner to win the presidency from running for office for the next five years. It looked as though they have knocked Marine Le Pen out of the race.

Nobody, least of all her, the leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), knows what is going to happen next in French politics. In opinion polls just over half of the French population, between 54% and 57%, agreed that justice had run its course.

"The law is the same for everyone," President Macron declared. After lengthy consideration by a tribunal of three judges, Le Pen and nine other former RN MEPs were found guilty of illegally siphoning off some €4.4m (£3.7m) of funds from the European Parliament for political operations in France, not for personal gain.

Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban and four years in prison, not to begin before the appeals process had been concluded. Even then that sentence in France would normally amount to two years' house arrest wearing an ankle alarm.

French presidents, such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, have been convicted before. Controversy is flaring because Le Pen was given an extra punishment: the immediate ban on running for political office, starting this week.

Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, her second in command at RN, likened the ban to a "nuclear bomb" and a "political death penalty". Speaking in L'Assemblee Nationale, of which she is still a member, Le Pen identified herself with Alexei Navalny, the dissident leader murdered in Russia, and Ekrem Imamoglu, the recently imprisoned Turkish opposition leader and mayor of Istanbul.

The ban was imposed at the discretion of the chief judge Benedicte de Perthuis, a former business consultant, Francois Bayrou, France's Macronist prime minister admitted he was "troubled" by the verdict. Not surprisingly perhaps from him, since the prosecution is appealing against verdicts in a similar case of political embezzlement, in which Bayrou's party was found guilty but he was acquitted, escaping any possibility of a ban.

Bayrou is expected to be a candidate for the presidency. Meanwhile, RN has the power to bring down his government since it is the largest party in the Assembly, with 37%, but was kept out of power by a coalition.

Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to support Marine Le Pen. Matteo Salvini in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Vladimir Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov all denounced what they saw as a "violation of democratic norms".

Hungary's Viktor Orban said on X "Je suis Marine Le Pen". Orban's post came on the same platform Donald Trump Jr posted that "JD Vance was right about everything.