Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat - but disillusionment could be eventual winner

On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.

Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas - an old town that's fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that's fallen victim to Amazon. But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.

One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them. In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.

"People were very proud of their town… and that's why people get upset and emotional as they remember that," she says. It's this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.

Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour's record in government so far. Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.

A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were "made up" at last year's election result but have been "astonished" since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern. "Getting a taxi is two things, it's either a luxury or a necessity...

the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it," he says. But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK? Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.

He's now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates. Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.

It's in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly. Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.

And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate. It's no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage's party as "failed Tories".

As a response to this, look no further than Reform's recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership. ???? Click here to listen to Electoral Dysfunction on your podcast app ???? Read more:Tough test for Labour after MP quitsMP jailed for late-night brawlLocal elections could re-shape politics But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.

Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories. The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.

But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas - an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets. Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate - another local councillor - as the only person who can stop Reform.

The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community. "I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone," she says.

But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the "thousands of leaflets" through her door, she still thinks "they all say the same thing". One factor that doesn't seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area's former Labour MP left office.

Mike Amesbury stepped down after being convicted of repeatedly punching a constituent in a late-night brawl outside a pub. But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP's local efforts, while also saying he was "very silly" to have acted in the way he did.

That may be putting it mildly. But it's hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday's vote.

A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it. Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election: Catherine Anne Blaiklock - English DemocratsDan Clarke - Liberal PartyChris Copeman - Green PartyPaul Duffy - Liberal DemocratsPeter Ford - Workers PartyHowling Laud Hope - Monster Raving Loony PartySean Houlston - ConservativesJason Philip Hughes - Volt UKAlan McKie - IndependentGraham Harry Moore - English Constitution PartyPaul Andrew Murphy - Social Democratic PartySarah Pochin - Reform UKKaren Shore - LabourJohn Stevens - Rejoin EUMichael Williams - Independent.